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Red51
354620.3
92396.7
485515.7
Blue58
976315.1
95496.9
571232.0
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4653203040607080905158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3546
#10
20.30.1
20.420.2
Auto7.5
Teleop11.6
End1.2
blue by 11.7
32.01.0
28.329.3
Auto13.6
Teleop16.4
End2.0
Second
4855
#16
15.70.1
15.315.2
Auto6.7
Teleop7.4
End1.6
red by 0.5
9763
#27
15.10.7
13.113.8
Auto3.8
Teleop8.8
End2.6
Third
9239
#28
6.70.1
7.06.9
Auto2.8
Teleop3.1
End0.8
blue by 0.2
9549
#26
6.91.0
5.66.6
Auto1.4
Teleop4.7
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsEarned25%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed