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Red50
553518.0
887325.8
55607.0
Blue55
524711.0
511019.3
779020.4
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50442030406070805055

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.80.2
21.021.2
Auto8.1
Teleop15.0
End2.8
red by 5.4
7790
#10
20.40.9
12.213.1
Auto9.1
Teleop10.5
End0.8
Second
5535
#21
18.00.2
13.914.2
Auto5.1
Teleop11.4
End1.5
blue by 1.3
5110
#28
19.30.9
15.816.7
Auto5.9
Teleop10.0
End3.4
Third
5560
#32
7.00.4
9.710.0
Auto2.6
Teleop3.5
End1.0
blue by 4.0
5247
#23
11.00.9
12.913.9
Auto2.4
Teleop6.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsEarned11%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed