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Red58
512621.2
18477.7
642430.8
Blue55
44558.3
526813.8
198736.2
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7764020401001201401605855

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.81.3
31.730.4
Auto9.2
Teleop19.1
End2.5
blue by 5.4
1987
#14
36.20.3
39.038.7
Auto13.1
Teleop20.2
End2.9
Second
5126
#13
21.21.3
22.921.6
Auto9.6
Teleop11.4
End0.2
red by 7.5
5268
#23
13.80.3
12.612.3
Auto8.6
Teleop5.1
End0.1
Third
1847
#31
7.71.3
13.312.0
Auto1.4
Teleop4.5
End1.7
blue by 0.6
4455
#18
8.30.3
8.07.7
Auto4.4
Teleop2.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsMissed36%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
36%Ensemble oddsEarned12%Ensemble oddsMissed