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Red70
256014.0
501328.1
432922.0
Blue26
882518.8
495913.0
807710.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions754702040601001201407026

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.10.0
28.528.5
Auto9.8
Teleop15.7
End2.6
red by 9.2
8825
#19
18.81.3
20.218.9
Auto6.2
Teleop11.2
End1.4
Second
4329
#11
22.00.0
22.923.0
Auto4.2
Teleop15.3
End2.4
red by 8.9
4959
#34
13.01.3
13.812.4
Auto7.2
Teleop5.1
End0.7
Third
2560
#15
14.00.0
13.213.3
Auto6.2
Teleop6.4
End1.4
red by 4.0
8077
#29
10.01.3
11.810.5
Auto3.3
Teleop4.2
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
65%Melody oddsEarned20%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed