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Red58
509811.7
182519.3
882518.8
Blue73
198623.9
512621.2
93126.8
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions509101001505873

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1825
#24
19.30.5
19.019.5
Auto7.2
Teleop10.4
End1.7
blue by 7.4
931
#6
26.80.3
27.627.3
Auto11.6
Teleop13.1
End2.1
Second
8825
#19
18.80.5
18.919.4
Auto6.2
Teleop11.2
End1.4
blue by 5.1
1986
#25
23.90.3
26.726.4
Auto6.7
Teleop14.8
End2.4
Third
5098
#30
11.70.5
12.412.9
Auto3.6
Teleop7.8
End0.3
blue by 9.5
5126
#13
21.20.3
23.523.2
Auto9.6
Teleop11.4
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
31%Melody oddsEarned63%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed39%Ensemble oddsMissed