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Red67
702832.4
423915.8
305814.1
Blue70
302316.7
472835.4
534820.1
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions688002040601001201406770

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.40.4
31.731.3
Auto12.0
Teleop20.7
End-0.3
blue by 3.1
35.40.1
34.033.9
Auto12.2
Teleop21.0
End2.2
Second
4239
#14
15.80.4
16.215.8
Auto7.2
Teleop7.1
End1.5
blue by 4.3
20.10.1
20.520.4
Auto6.6
Teleop10.8
End2.8
Third
3058
#11
14.10.4
14.914.5
Auto5.6
Teleop6.1
End2.3
blue by 2.7
3023
#18
16.70.1
16.816.7
Auto5.5
Teleop9.6
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
57%Melody oddsEarned77%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsEarned56%Ensemble oddsMissed