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Red61
179219.7
470315.2
812222.6
Blue44
341815.3
614728.6
222713.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions44320102040506070806144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8122
#11
22.62.5
13.916.4
Auto11.1
Teleop9.3
End2.1
blue by 6.0
28.61.6
8.810.4
Auto13.7
Teleop7.2
End7.7
Second
1792
#18
19.72.5
15.217.7
Auto7.7
Teleop10.5
End1.5
red by 4.4
3418
#33
15.31.6
11.713.3
Auto5.6
Teleop6.9
End2.8
Third
4703
#24
15.22.5
9.211.7
Auto6.3
Teleop6.3
End2.6
red by 1.4
2227
#39
13.81.6
9.511.0
Auto5.1
Teleop5.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsEarned16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsEarned