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Red45
217513.9
470315.2
320622.5
Blue47
285515.7
388317.6
60447.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48300204060801004547

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3206
#21
22.50.4
18.118.5
Auto9.8
Teleop10.3
End2.4
red by 4.8
3883
#27
17.62.0
13.215.1
Auto5.7
Teleop9.5
End2.4
Second
4703
#24
15.20.4
11.712.1
Auto6.3
Teleop6.3
End2.6
blue by 0.5
2855
#16
15.72.0
10.212.1
Auto5.7
Teleop9.8
End0.1
Third
2175
#35
13.90.4
11.612.0
Auto8.0
Teleop5.0
End0.8
red by 6.1
6044
#41
7.82.0
6.08.0
Auto2.9
Teleop3.7
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
23%Melody oddsMissed11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed