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Red58
451114.7
297722.1
181625.3
Blue58
284718.8
591417.6
93016.8
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions715840801005858

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.30.1
25.425.3
Auto8.4
Teleop15.8
End1.1
red by 6.5
18.80.2
19.018.8
Auto6.9
Teleop9.1
End2.8
Second
22.10.1
22.222.1
Auto5.7
Teleop14.6
End1.8
red by 4.5
5914
#30
17.60.2
17.817.6
Auto5.1
Teleop12.1
End0.4
Third
4511
#26
14.70.1
14.814.7
Auto5.0
Teleop8.6
End1.1
blue by 2.1
930
#10
16.80.2
17.016.8
Auto6.4
Teleop8.9
End1.5