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Red44
423920.8
37406.5
327723.4
Blue80
785815.5
329722.4
702833.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5254455055606570754480

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3277
#14
23.40.3
17.817.5
Auto10.7
Teleop10.8
End2.0
blue by 9.9
33.31.0
18.819.8
Auto12.3
Teleop19.9
End1.1
Second
4239
#46
20.80.3
18.918.6
Auto8.6
Teleop9.7
End2.5
blue by 1.6
3297
#11
22.41.0
18.919.9
Auto9.1
Teleop8.2
End5.2
Third
3740
#51
6.50.3
10.410.0
Auto6.3
Teleop1.2
End-1.0
blue by 9.0
7858
#39
15.51.3
10.611.9
Auto4.8
Teleop9.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
28%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed52%Ensemble oddsMissed