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Red64
19978.9
392821.2
464620.6
Blue29
455015.5
44557.5
942818.7
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53450204060806429

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3928
#11
21.20.6
18.018.7
Auto5.4
Teleop14.0
End1.9
red by 2.6
9428
#26
18.71.1
17.316.1
Auto5.2
Teleop12.3
End1.1
Second
4646
#12
20.60.6
19.219.8
Auto7.7
Teleop11.9
End0.9
red by 5.0
4550
#16
15.51.1
16.415.3
Auto5.2
Teleop8.7
End1.6
Third
1997
#34
8.90.6
9.510.1
Auto3.1
Teleop4.7
End1.1
red by 1.4
4455
#32
7.51.1
7.96.8
Auto5.0
Teleop1.9
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsEarned25%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed