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Red42
250215.9
245710.6
501326.4
Blue48
178519.9
903113.0
596814.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4936102030406070804248

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.40.6
16.115.5
Auto11.3
Teleop13.4
End1.8
red by 6.5
1785
#18
19.91.6
13.615.2
Auto4.8
Teleop12.9
End2.3
Second
2502
#23
15.90.6
15.314.7
Auto4.8
Teleop10.2
End0.9
red by 1.1
5968
#29
14.81.6
10.111.6
Auto10.1
Teleop2.9
End1.8
Third
2457
#15
10.60.6
11.310.7
Auto3.5
Teleop6.8
End0.3
blue by 2.3
9031
#22
13.01.6
10.311.8
Auto4.5
Teleop6.8
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsMissed21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed