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Red157
139137.1
434227.3
192334.7
Blue108
589538.1
164034.4
428527.1
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107111050150200250157108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1391
#22
37.11.1
36.537.6
Auto10.4
Teleop24.3
End2.4
blue by 1.0
38.10.2
38.238.4
Auto14.6
Teleop20.2
End3.3
Second
34.71.1
34.235.3
Auto6.9
Teleop24.5
End3.4
red by 0.3
34.40.2
34.634.8
Auto9.9
Teleop22.3
End2.3
Third
4342
#12
27.31.1
26.727.9
Auto11.0
Teleop13.9
End2.4
red by 0.3
4285
#40
27.10.2
27.227.4
Auto12.6
Teleop13.8
End0.7