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Red38
43718.4
87402.5
347826.5
Blue31
66527.5
440020.3
92827.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions383310203050603831

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.50.4
23.223.7
Auto9.9
Teleop13.8
End2.7
red by 6.1
4400
#12
20.30.5
18.518.0
Auto5.3
Teleop13.2
End1.9
Second
4371
#16
8.40.4
8.08.4
Auto1.0
Teleop6.8
End0.6
red by 0.8
9282
#36
7.60.5
6.86.4
Auto3.9
Teleop3.1
End0.6
Third
8740
#40
2.50.5
2.63.1
Auto1.0
Teleop1.0
End0.5
blue by 5.0
6652
#28
7.50.5
5.34.8
Auto1.3
Teleop5.8
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed