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Red50
478214.0
347211.1
588714.7
Blue17
335410.5
91035.7
913411.4
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4034102030506070805017

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5887
#18
14.71.0
12.513.5
Auto4.4
Teleop9.7
End0.6
red by 3.3
9134
#21
11.41.3
12.811.5
Auto4.5
Teleop5.6
End1.2
Second
4782
#12
14.01.0
13.114.1
Auto5.9
Teleop7.6
End0.6
red by 3.5
3354
#15
10.51.2
11.810.6
Auto4.3
Teleop5.6
End0.6
Third
11.11.0
9.610.6
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.1
red by 5.4
9103
#16
5.71.2
6.85.7
Auto1.5
Teleop3.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
14%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
4%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed