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Red41
56796.5
350619.1
96053.5
Blue26
486111.1
57277.6
92975.5
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2936010204050604126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.10.1
17.717.6
Auto10.8
Teleop7.4
End0.9
red by 8.0
4861
#22
11.10.4
8.27.9
Auto4.5
Teleop6.2
End0.5
Second
5679
#24
6.50.1
5.85.7
Auto4.2
Teleop1.4
End0.9
blue by 1.1
5727
#15
7.60.7
14.914.2
Auto4.0
Teleop2.6
End1.0
Third
3.50.1
3.33.2
Auto3.1
Teleop-0.1
End0.5
blue by 2.1
9297
#28
5.50.7
8.88.1
Auto1.3
Teleop3.6
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
11%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsEarned9%Ensemble oddsMissed