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Red33
319620.5
38226.6
91983.4
Blue15
55183.5
59193.5
153313.1
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions27280102040503315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.50.7
12.413.1
Auto5.7
Teleop13.4
End1.5
red by 7.4
1533
#16
13.10.9
14.113.2
Auto4.9
Teleop6.7
End1.5
Second
3822
#22
6.60.7
7.98.6
Auto3.1
Teleop2.4
End1.1
red by 3.2
5518
#27
3.50.9
6.45.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop2.5
End1.1
Third
9198
#30
3.40.7
6.77.4
Auto1.4
Teleop1.2
End0.9
Level
5919
#23
3.50.9
2.71.8
Auto0.8
Teleop2.4
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
15%Melody oddsMissed12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed