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Red64
327812.2
327627.7
957619.2
Blue26
702818.8
546412.4
217715.0
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions373810203050606426

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.73.3
16.619.9
Auto10.2
Teleop16.5
End1.0
red by 8.9
7028
#45
18.80.8
13.913.1
Auto9.4
Teleop8.0
End1.4
Second
9576
#15
19.23.3
9.412.8
Auto6.3
Teleop10.9
End2.0
red by 4.2
2177
#19
15.00.8
8.47.5
Auto4.5
Teleop7.6
End2.9
Third
3278
#16
12.23.3
8.111.5
Auto3.9
Teleop8.0
End0.3
blue by 0.1
5464
#54
12.40.8
11.110.3
Auto7.1
Teleop3.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
23%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed