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Red35
265413.9
565811.2
422610.4
Blue49
42389.5
423918.9
957619.2
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions425202060801003549

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2654
#34
13.91.6
12.611.0
Auto3.9
Teleop8.5
End1.5
blue by 5.3
9576
#15
19.20.8
16.115.3
Auto6.3
Teleop10.9
End2.0
Second
5658
#49
11.21.5
13.612.1
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.3
blue by 7.7
18.90.7
19.518.8
Auto7.5
Teleop8.8
End2.6
Third
4226
#46
10.41.6
13.111.5
Auto5.1
Teleop2.5
End2.8
red by 0.9
4238
#53
9.50.8
10.59.7
Auto4.2
Teleop4.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsMissed38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed27%Ensemble oddsMissed