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Red71
545922.8
944328.7
964419.6
Blue76
693328.2
870817.9
365419.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67664050607080907176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9443
#15
28.70.8
23.824.6
Auto13.0
Teleop12.5
End3.2
red by 0.5
6933
#40
28.21.0
29.030.0
Auto12.0
Teleop14.3
End1.9
Second
5459
#32
22.80.8
18.118.9
Auto8.1
Teleop12.1
End2.6
red by 3.0
3654
#23
19.81.0
17.718.8
Auto9.7
Teleop8.1
End2.0
Third
9644
#33
19.60.8
17.218.0
Auto8.7
Teleop8.3
End2.5
red by 1.7
8708
#39
17.91.0
13.914.9
Auto5.9
Teleop9.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
62%Melody oddsMissed74%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
51%Ensemble oddsMissed30%Ensemble oddsMissed