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Red90
346425.9
568742.8
17731.2
Blue92
801338.8
19535.7
511212.7
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11694501502009092

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.80.4
43.543.2
Auto11.8
Teleop28.7
End2.3
red by 4.0
38.80.1
39.039.0
Auto11.8
Teleop20.7
End6.3
Second
177
#2
31.20.4
32.031.6
Auto9.6
Teleop19.1
End2.5
blue by 4.5
195
#21
35.70.1
36.035.9
Auto12.0
Teleop21.7
End2.0
Third
3464
#15
25.90.4
26.626.2
Auto10.1
Teleop12.9
End2.9
red by 13.2
5112
#45
12.70.1
12.912.8
Auto8.0
Teleop4.0
End0.8