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Red95
346425.9
568742.8
17731.2
Blue102
801338.8
19535.7
511212.7
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114945015020095102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.80.4
43.242.8
Auto11.8
Teleop28.7
End2.3
red by 4.0
38.80.2
39.038.8
Auto11.8
Teleop20.7
End6.3
Second
177
#2
31.20.4
31.631.2
Auto9.6
Teleop19.1
End2.5
blue by 4.5
195
#21
35.70.2
35.935.7
Auto12.0
Teleop21.7
End2.0
Third
3464
#15
25.90.4
26.225.9
Auto10.1
Teleop12.9
End2.9
red by 13.2
5112
#45
12.70.2
12.812.7
Auto8.0
Teleop4.0
End0.8