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Red84
568742.8
199114.2
19028.7
Blue102
17731.2
8836.6
216823.2
43%Model gave it57%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions90975015084102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.80.6
39.939.3
Auto11.8
Teleop28.7
End2.3
red by 6.2
88
#17
36.60.0
36.636.6
Auto12.3
Teleop19.2
End5.1
Second
190
#30
28.70.6
30.429.9
Auto8.8
Teleop17.7
End2.2
blue by 2.5
177
#2
31.20.0
28.728.7
Auto9.6
Teleop19.1
End2.5
Third
1991
#42
14.20.6
12.211.6
Auto4.4
Teleop8.6
End1.1
blue by 9.1
23.20.0
21.921.9
Auto6.2
Teleop15.5
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
90%Melody oddsEarned96%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
34%Ensemble oddsMissed66%Ensemble oddsEarned