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Red132
439228.9
25454.5
804824.9
Blue111
644340.6
347847.7
347317.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118105050150200250132111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#1
54.51.4
56.157.5
Auto15.5
Teleop32.3
End6.6
red by 6.7
47.70.8
45.446.2
Auto14.2
Teleop27.5
End6.1
Second
4392
#16
28.91.4
28.029.4
Auto13.2
Teleop13.6
End2.1
blue by 11.7
6443
#10
40.60.8
38.038.9
Auto14.3
Teleop24.0
End2.3
Third
8048
#33
24.91.4
21.422.9
Auto6.7
Teleop15.5
End2.7
red by 7.7
3473
#56
17.20.8
12.913.7
Auto3.6
Teleop12.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
94%Melody oddsEarned82%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
71%Ensemble oddsEarned51%Ensemble oddsEarned