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Red150
29428.9
132359.8
25454.5
Blue117
35947.6
297446.3
393736.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161151100200150117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.80.0
60.360.3
Auto19.7
Teleop32.2
End8.0
red by 12.2
359
#6
47.60.8
49.949.2
Auto15.3
Teleop25.9
End6.5
Second
254
#1
54.50.0
54.955.0
Auto15.5
Teleop32.3
End6.6
red by 8.2
46.30.8
48.647.9
Auto14.7
Teleop30.4
End1.2
Third
294
#40
28.90.0
29.429.4
Auto10.0
Teleop17.5
End1.4
blue by 7.9
3937
#28
36.90.8
39.238.4
Auto10.4
Teleop22.4
End4.0