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Red66
490923.2
454625.9
870814.9
Blue67
271321.8
99888.4
581333.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68653040506080906667

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4546
#12
25.90.4
24.324.8
Auto11.7
Teleop14.1
End0.2
blue by 7.7
33.70.2
31.832.0
Auto15.2
Teleop14.7
End3.9
Second
4909
#11
23.20.4
21.622.0
Auto9.9
Teleop11.6
End1.7
red by 1.4
2713
#14
21.80.2
19.920.1
Auto9.9
Teleop11.6
End0.4
Third
8708
#21
14.90.4
13.614.0
Auto6.6
Teleop5.6
End2.7
red by 6.5
9988
#22
8.40.3
7.37.6
Auto4.5
Teleop2.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
55%Melody oddsEarned66%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed30%Ensemble oddsMissed