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Red95
17223.1
669011.8
454624.7
Blue32
632416.1
545918.1
76749.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions61452040801009532

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.71.5
22.924.4
Auto10.2
Teleop13.0
End1.4
red by 6.6
5459
#29
18.10.7
17.416.6
Auto6.4
Teleop10.4
End1.4
Second
172
#11
23.11.5
20.722.2
Auto8.6
Teleop12.0
End2.5
red by 7.0
16.10.7
15.014.2
Auto5.5
Teleop9.5
End1.2
Third
6690
#16
11.81.5
10.011.5
Auto5.6
Teleop4.0
End2.1
red by 2.0
7674
#32
9.90.7
10.69.9
Auto3.5
Teleop5.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
44%Melody oddsEarned17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
23%Ensemble oddsEarned12%Ensemble oddsMissed