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Red20
15120.3
79072.8
107310.4
Blue101
804617.8
13135.5
841016.2
12%Model gave it88%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions359305015020020101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
151
#11
20.31.2
21.019.8
Auto6.8
Teleop12.6
End0.9
blue by 15.3
131
#3
35.51.4
35.834.3
Auto11.7
Teleop18.3
End5.5
Second
1073
#18
10.41.2
12.511.2
Auto6.0
Teleop3.5
End0.9
blue by 7.4
8046
#17
17.81.4
19.818.3
Auto8.8
Teleop8.5
End0.6
Third
7907
#19
2.81.2
5.24.0
Auto1.2
Teleop0.5
End1.1
blue by 13.3
8410
#26
16.21.4
21.720.3
Auto5.8
Teleop8.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
37%Melody oddsMissed78%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed48%Ensemble oddsMissed