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Red65
13124.4
264823.7
15711.1
Blue85
490517.6
346727.4
615315.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60592040801006585

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
131
#6
24.40.7
22.623.3
Auto9.2
Teleop10.9
End4.4
blue by 3.0
27.41.8
24.926.7
Auto8.8
Teleop16.2
End2.4
Second
23.70.8
23.224.0
Auto8.8
Teleop12.9
End2.1
red by 6.1
4905
#13
17.62.2
15.717.9
Auto5.6
Teleop10.2
End1.8
Third
157
#33
11.10.7
8.28.9
Auto3.8
Teleop6.4
End0.9
blue by 4.3
6153
#23
15.41.8
12.514.3
Auto3.8
Teleop10.7
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
41%Melody oddsEarned41%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsEarned26%Ensemble oddsMissed