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Red59
219116.2
911615.5
851327.6
Blue55
75876.9
192330.3
68606.4
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions49534060705955

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.60.0
21.121.1
Auto10.2
Teleop12.0
End5.5
blue by 2.6
1923
#12
30.30.1
29.829.7
Auto9.3
Teleop19.2
End1.7
Second
2191
#13
16.20.0
14.814.9
Auto5.3
Teleop10.2
End0.7
red by 9.3
7587
#34
6.90.1
10.610.5
Auto4.6
Teleop1.8
End0.5
Third
9116
#17
15.50.0
10.710.7
Auto6.3
Teleop7.5
End1.7
red by 9.1
6860
#23
6.40.1
5.75.6
Auto2.7
Teleop2.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
11%Melody oddsMissed38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
36%Ensemble oddsEarned13%Ensemble oddsMissed