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Red41
151811.7
300322.8
630020.4
Blue25
63538.7
19115.4
79036.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50300204060801004125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3003
#11
22.80.2
14.213.9
Auto8.5
Teleop13.0
End1.3
red by 7.4
191
#26
15.40.5
11.010.5
Auto4.0
Teleop10.8
End0.6
Second
6300
#47
20.40.1
19.219.0
Auto7.0
Teleop11.2
End2.3
red by 11.7
6353
#52
8.70.5
8.98.3
Auto2.8
Teleop4.9
End1.0
Third
1518
#48
11.70.2
9.69.4
Auto5.0
Teleop5.1
End1.6
red by 5.6
7903
#49DQ
6.10.5
9.79.2
Auto2.6
Teleop3.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
30%Melody oddsMissed19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed