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Red43
662115.8
79036.1
379919.3
Blue39
311713.1
383815.5
499112.6
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions30470204060804339

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3799
#18
19.31.5
9.511.0
Auto5.2
Teleop12.5
End1.6
red by 3.7
3838
#35
15.50.2
15.415.2
Auto6.0
Teleop7.9
End1.6
Second
6621
#21
15.81.5
14.516.1
Auto3.4
Teleop10.3
End2.1
red by 2.7
3117
#53
13.10.1
12.112.0
Auto5.1
Teleop5.8
End2.1
Third
7903
#49
6.11.5
5.46.9
Auto2.6
Teleop3.0
End0.5
blue by 6.5
4991
#45
12.60.1
13.313.2
Auto4.2
Teleop7.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed