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Red100
156132.5
120924.9
949522.5
Blue71
511919.6
208323.9
93527.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions827505010015020025030010071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.51.7
29.431.1
Auto12.1
Teleop19.8
End0.6
red by 4.7
935
#18
27.80.1
26.326.4
Auto11.7
Teleop13.9
End2.2
Second
1209
#13
24.91.7
21.923.5
Auto8.0
Teleop16.7
End0.2
red by 1.0
23.90.1
24.124.2
Auto8.5
Teleop12.6
End2.8
Third
22.51.7
21.923.5
Auto8.1
Teleop11.6
End2.7
red by 2.9
5119
#33
19.60.1
18.518.6
Auto7.1
Teleop10.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
85%Melody oddsEarned87%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed