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Red48
548421.4
181914.9
68099.2
Blue22
42939.9
235210.5
941016.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions38401020305060704822

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.40.5
19.620.1
Auto7.0
Teleop13.2
End1.1
red by 4.9
9410
#18
16.41.9
11.39.4
Auto7.1
Teleop7.6
End1.8
Second
1819
#14
14.90.8
11.011.8
Auto5.6
Teleop8.7
End0.6
red by 4.4
2352
#33
10.51.9
10.28.3
Auto4.1
Teleop5.7
End0.7
Third
6809
#41
9.20.8
6.06.8
Auto3.5
Teleop4.1
End1.6
blue by 0.8
4293
#23
9.91.9
12.510.6
Auto3.7
Teleop5.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsMissed14%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsMissed