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Red54
181914.9
216512.7
941016.4
Blue29
45239.3
96318.8
235911.9
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions37430102030506070805429

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9410
#18
16.42.2
10.712.9
Auto7.1
Teleop7.6
End1.8
red by 4.5
2359
#29
11.93.2
13.410.2
Auto4.5
Teleop5.9
End1.5
Second
1819
#14
14.92.2
11.914.1
Auto5.6
Teleop8.7
End0.6
red by 5.6
4523
#21
9.33.2
12.28.9
Auto2.7
Teleop6.4
End0.2
Third
2165
#40
12.72.2
11.313.6
Auto3.2
Teleop7.6
End1.9
red by 3.9
9631
#43
8.83.2
12.69.4
Auto3.5
Teleop4.7
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsMissed23%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsEarned