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Red99
124122.3
978523.4
238627.3
Blue109
494636.8
614016.2
86529.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7584406010012099109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2386
#11
27.31.5
25.527.1
Auto9.2
Teleop16.2
End1.9
blue by 9.6
36.82.3
33.936.2
Auto13.3
Teleop19.6
End4.0
Second
9785
#33
23.41.5
21.923.4
Auto6.4
Teleop15.5
End1.5
blue by 5.9
865
#12
29.32.3
26.428.7
Auto12.0
Teleop14.5
End2.8
Third
1241
#32
22.31.5
21.723.3
Auto5.6
Teleop16.7
End0.1
red by 6.2
6140
#18
16.22.3
14.416.7
Auto4.3
Teleop9.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
87%Melody oddsEarned48%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
37%Ensemble oddsMissed68%Ensemble oddsEarned