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Red23
99996.0
219812.0
808914.5
Blue69
956914.1
316130.6
270227.4
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29690204060801001201401602369

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8089
#16
14.50.7
16.716.0
Auto6.8
Teleop5.7
End1.9
blue by 16.1
30.60.6
25.626.2
Auto14.1
Teleop14.3
End2.3
Second
2198
#26
12.00.7
13.412.7
Auto3.8
Teleop6.5
End1.7
blue by 15.4
27.40.6
23.524.1
Auto6.1
Teleop19.2
End2.1
Third
9999
#27
6.01.1
3.92.8
Auto2.5
Teleop3.1
End0.2
blue by 8.1
9569
#15
14.10.6
9.09.6
Auto4.6
Teleop8.7
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsMissed50%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed