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Red42
614012.8
68669.3
713620.0
Blue69
957512.4
494625.4
61414.6
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions373720304050604269

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.00.1
17.217.1
Auto7.6
Teleop10.2
End2.2
blue by 5.4
25.41.8
21.022.7
Auto9.0
Teleop14.4
End2.0
Second
6140
#25
12.80.1
11.010.9
Auto4.1
Teleop6.0
End2.7
red by 0.3
9575
#17
12.41.7
10.011.7
Auto5.9
Teleop5.5
End1.0
Third
6866
#23DQ
9.30.1
5.35.2
Auto4.0
Teleop4.7
End0.6
red by 4.7
6141
#22
4.61.1
1.93.0
Auto0.7
Teleop3.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
5%Melody oddsMissed16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
18%Ensemble oddsEarned21%Ensemble oddsMissed