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Red52
966310.6
808920.9
490318.4
Blue29
906221.4
95257.1
461710.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4543303540505560655229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.90.8
16.717.4
Auto8.5
Teleop11.0
End1.4
blue by 0.5
9062
#18
21.41.0
17.616.5
Auto10.4
Teleop10.0
End1.0
Second
4903
#15
18.41.3
14.515.8
Auto9.4
Teleop9.2
End-0.2
red by 8.4
4617
#20
10.01.7
14.112.5
Auto2.9
Teleop5.9
End1.2
Third
9663
#22
10.61.3
9.510.8
Auto4.3
Teleop4.9
End1.4
red by 3.5
9525
#29
7.11.0
7.56.5
Auto3.2
Teleop1.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsEarned24%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed