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Red95
490730.2
373919.9
808120.7
Blue43
467835.0
55967.3
966314.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68592040801009543

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.22.0
28.930.9
Auto14.1
Teleop12.4
End3.6
blue by 4.8
35.01.4
33.131.7
Auto14.6
Teleop14.6
End5.8
Second
20.72.0
16.918.9
Auto5.9
Teleop12.0
End2.7
red by 6.0
9663
#15
14.71.4
11.910.5
Auto6.9
Teleop6.6
End1.2
Third
19.92.0
14.316.3
Auto7.9
Teleop11.5
End0.5
red by 12.6
5596
#30
7.31.4
9.48.0
Auto3.1
Teleop3.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsEarned44%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsEarned37%Ensemble oddsMissed