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Red61
966314.7
58348.2
490320.1
Blue63
494015.6
613515.0
687512.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4143253035455055606163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.11.5
17.418.8
Auto9.5
Teleop10.7
End0.0
red by 4.5
4940
#11
15.60.8
13.614.4
Auto5.0
Teleop8.9
End1.8
Second
9663
#15
14.71.5
12.714.2
Auto6.9
Teleop6.6
End1.2
blue by 0.3
6135
#10
15.00.8
13.714.6
Auto6.5
Teleop6.2
End2.3
Third
5834
#27
8.21.5
7.28.6
Auto4.1
Teleop3.5
End0.7
blue by 3.9
6875
#18
12.10.8
11.111.9
Auto6.6
Teleop4.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsEarned15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
4%Ensemble oddsMissed23%Ensemble oddsEarned