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Red75
95718.5
26359.9
154027.1
Blue53
469211.9
281129.6
59755.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5446204060801007553

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.11.5
17.418.9
Auto11.6
Teleop10.8
End4.6
blue by 2.5
29.60.7
30.631.3
Auto9.9
Teleop14.6
End5.0
Second
957
#13
18.51.5
20.221.7
Auto6.3
Teleop10.7
End1.5
red by 6.6
4692
#20
11.90.7
8.39.0
Auto3.8
Teleop6.1
End1.9
Third
2635
#29
9.91.5
10.311.7
Auto3.9
Teleop3.4
End2.6
red by 4.7
5975
#34
5.20.7
3.44.1
Auto1.8
Teleop1.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsEarned43%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsEarned