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Red50
55963.6
95809.5
301534.0
Blue23
467828.6
906215.6
131014.5
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4474020601001201401605023

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.00.4
31.732.1
Auto14.3
Teleop15.8
End3.9
red by 5.4
4678
#7Sur
28.62.7
31.128.4
Auto8.7
Teleop15.9
End4.1
Second
9580
#16
9.50.4
9.19.5
Auto3.0
Teleop4.8
End1.7
blue by 6.1
9062
#15
15.62.7
18.415.7
Auto6.2
Teleop8.4
End1.0
Third
5596
#26Sur
3.60.4
3.03.4
Auto1.9
Teleop0.6
End1.0
blue by 10.9
1310
#21
14.52.7
14.211.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
33%Melody oddsEarned78%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
55%Ensemble oddsMissed44%Ensemble oddsMissed