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Red61
48411.5
201620.5
692122.2
Blue47
902717.5
164713.4
437319.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60512040801006147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.20.5
21.622.1
Auto8.6
Teleop10.8
End2.9
red by 3.1
4373
#22
19.20.0
15.715.7
Auto6.7
Teleop9.3
End3.2
Second
2016
#17
20.50.5
20.521.0
Auto6.8
Teleop11.4
End2.3
red by 3.0
9027
#18
17.50.0
16.816.8
Auto7.3
Teleop8.1
End2.2
Third
484
#19
11.50.5
11.411.9
Auto3.3
Teleop6.6
End1.6
blue by 1.9
1647
#25
13.40.0
14.914.9
Auto6.5
Teleop5.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
41%Melody oddsEarned27%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed