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Red45
87145.4
164024.7
164713.4
Blue41
42720.6
75877.9
201620.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions513702060804541

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1640
#11
24.70.3
24.324.0
Auto8.7
Teleop14.5
End1.5
red by 4.1
427
#26
20.60.4
13.413.7
Auto6.5
Teleop13.5
End0.6
Second
1647
#25
13.40.3
13.713.4
Auto6.5
Teleop5.2
End1.7
blue by 7.1
2016
#17
20.50.4
15.315.7
Auto6.8
Teleop11.4
End2.3
Third
8714
#23
5.40.3
6.96.7
Auto3.3
Teleop0.8
End1.3
blue by 2.5
7587
#30
7.90.4
6.77.1
Auto6.2
Teleop2.0
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
32%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed5%Ensemble oddsMissed