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Red115
644335.8
154030.8
131834.6
Blue108
281139.7
252142.8
189927.4
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10912450100150200115108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6443
#29
35.80.2
35.635.8
Auto12.6
Teleop22.2
End1.0
blue by 7.0
42.80.2
43.042.8
Auto13.2
Teleop26.5
End3.1
Second
34.60.2
34.434.6
Auto11.6
Teleop18.5
End4.5
blue by 5.1
39.70.2
39.939.7
Auto11.9
Teleop21.4
End6.5
Third
1540
#18
30.80.2
30.630.8
Auto9.5
Teleop17.4
End3.8
red by 3.4
1899
#13
27.40.2
27.627.4
Auto9.7
Teleop16.3
End1.4