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Red92
644335.8
154030.8
131834.6
Blue95
281139.7
252142.8
189927.4
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions110125501001502009295

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6443
#29
35.80.3
35.935.6
Auto12.6
Teleop22.2
End1.0
blue by 7.0
42.80.4
43.343.0
Auto13.2
Teleop26.5
End3.1
Second
34.60.3
34.634.4
Auto11.6
Teleop18.5
End4.5
blue by 5.1
39.70.4
40.339.9
Auto11.9
Teleop21.4
End6.5
Third
1540
#18
30.80.3
30.930.6
Auto9.5
Teleop17.4
End3.8
red by 3.4
1899
#13
27.40.4
28.027.6
Auto9.7
Teleop16.3
End1.4