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Red115
644335.8
154030.8
131834.6
Blue106
281139.7
252142.8
367427.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11012550100150200115106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6443
#29
35.80.2
35.735.9
Auto12.6
Teleop22.2
End1.0
blue by 7.0
42.80.1
43.443.3
Auto13.2
Teleop26.5
End3.1
Second
34.60.2
34.534.6
Auto11.6
Teleop18.5
End4.5
blue by 5.1
39.70.1
40.440.3
Auto11.9
Teleop21.4
End6.5
Third
1540
#18
30.80.2
30.730.9
Auto9.5
Teleop17.4
End3.8
red by 3.5
3674
#20
27.30.1
27.427.3
Auto8.6
Teleop16.9
End1.7