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Red110
943020.3
154030.8
252237.2
Blue102
944236.2
634320.4
177841.4
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions84914060100120140160110102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.21.2
31.132.4
Auto12.5
Teleop21.9
End2.9
blue by 4.2
41.41.4
40.241.6
Auto13.1
Teleop24.9
End3.4
Second
1540
#18
30.81.2
26.928.1
Auto9.5
Teleop17.4
End3.8
blue by 5.4
9442
#15
36.21.4
27.829.2
Auto11.7
Teleop23.3
End1.2
Third
9430
#28
20.31.2
18.619.9
Auto6.4
Teleop10.9
End2.9
blue by 0.2
6343
#35
20.41.4
13.514.8
Auto5.6
Teleop12.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
62%Melody oddsEarned88%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
49%Ensemble oddsEarned20%Ensemble oddsMissed