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Red94
418024.2
154030.8
189927.4
Blue83
247133.4
298018.8
445029.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10067501509483

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1540
#18
30.80.5
29.730.2
Auto9.5
Teleop17.4
End3.8
blue by 2.5
2471
#14
33.41.1
28.529.6
Auto8.2
Teleop21.9
End3.2
Second
1899
#13
27.40.5
29.930.4
Auto9.7
Teleop16.3
End1.4
blue by 1.8
4450
#11
29.31.1
24.225.3
Auto7.1
Teleop20.6
End1.6
Third
4180
#39
24.20.5
27.227.6
Auto9.4
Teleop11.9
End2.8
red by 5.4
2980
#33
18.81.1
12.113.2
Auto6.2
Teleop9.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
85%Melody oddsEarned68%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
67%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsEarned